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[Icy]

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Rules for Bullish WolfeWave Structure

Please note the odd sequence in counting, as you will see, it is necessary for the inductive analysis.  By starting with a top we are assured of beginning our count on a new wave.  (The reverse would apply for a bearish wave.)


The 2 point is a top.

The 3 point is the bottom of the first decline.

The 1 point is the bottom prior to point 2 (top), that 3 has surpassed.

The 4 point is the top of the rally after point 3.

The 5 point is the bottom after point 4 and is likely to exceed the extended trend line of 1 to 3. This is the entry point for a ride to the EPA line (1 to 4).

Estimated Price at Arrival (EPA) is trend line of 1 to 4 at apex of extended trend line of 1 to 3 and extended trend line of 2 to 4.

Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is apex of extended trend line of 1 to 3 and 2 to 4.







Why does the WolfeWave work so well?

 Market timing is not about finding the Holy Grail.

  Market timing is not about complicated algorithms.

  Market timing is not about colorful indicators and oscillators.

Market timing is about BALANCE.

เรื่องตำแหน่งราคาดูตามรูป และกัน นะคะ โดยสรุป WolfeWave เน้นความสมมาตรเชิงเวลา จาก 1-4 จะต้องไปทำสมดุลย์สุดท้ายหลังจากจบคลืนที่ 5 ไปยังคลื่น 6 เมื่อลากเส้น ตัดจะกำหนด เวลานัดพบ ได้ คะ

[Icy]

These are the rules from Street Smarts:

1. Number 2 wave is a top.
2. Number 3 wave is the bottom of a first decline.
3. Number 1 wave is the bottom prior to wave 2 (top). Point 3 must be lower
than point 1.
4. Number 4 wave is the top of wave 3. The wave 4 point should be higher than

the wave 1 bottom.
5. A trend line is drawn from point 1 to point 3. The extension of this line
projects to the anticipated reversal point which we will call wave 5. this is
the entry point for a ride to the epa line (1 to 4).
6. The Estimated Price at Arrival (EPA) is the trend line drawn from points 1

to
4. This projects the anticipated price objective. Our initial stop is placed

just
beneath the newly formed reversal at point 5. It can then be quickly
moved to breakeven.

IMPORTANT POINT: You cannot begin looking for the Wolfe Wave until points
1, 2, 3, and 4 have been formed. Keep in mind that point 3 must be lower than

point 1 for a buy setup. It must be higher than point 1 for a sell setup. Also,

on the best waves point 4 will be higher than point 1 for a buy setup and lower

than 1 for a sell setup. This ensures that absolute runaway market conditions

do not exist.


A) The 1-3 line and the 2-4 line must converge.

B) to help find the point 5 entry area you parrallel the 2-4 line off the 3

point to give a bottom boundary to the entry area.You can even use the 1 point

in extreme cases.

the idea is to take a line that is parallel to the 2-4 line ( the same angle as

the line connecting the point 2 and point 4 ) and draw a line from the point 3

at this same angle.

As the angle is steeper than the 1-3 line it gives you a deeper level for the

point 5 entry.

[Icy]

Finding the Right Trend and Direction

The question is always, ?what is the trend?.  Can we define the trend with moving averages or certain indicators?  No matter what you take to measure the trend, by knowing the tradable trend should be the basis for your trading approach.  Combining this approach on the same chart with multiple time frames allows you to determine in what direction you should take the next trade.

The key to profitable trading is to have a valid method of determining the right direction and tradable trend by using different time frames on one chart.  Late Robert Krausz introduced the TrendFinder strategy in which used the multiple time frame approach in variable ways. 
Meanwhile several standard software programs using this now in their basic software and since then multiple time frame strategies are becoming more popular.
First we must select the two time frames we are going to use, like daily bars as the bars we trade and weekly bars which we use as the trend.  Of course this can be done with all kind of variations, for example intraday 1 minute bars and 5 minute bars or any other combination.
Lets look at a basic set up.



Figure 1 ? EUR/YEN

Here are the rules:

- the trend can be only Up or Down
- the trend is Up when the daily bar closes above the previous weekly (blue) high, so the daily bar change from red to green on this chart
- the trend is Down when the daily bar closes below the previous weekly (blue) low, so the daily bar change from green to red on this chart
- at point A the close is above the previous weekly high, the trend is Up
- at point B the close is below the previous weekly low, the trend is Down
- at point C the close is above the previous weekly high, the trend is Up again

The multiple time frame analyses is based on the concept that every time period has it?s own trend and also it?s own support and resistance levels.  The trend, support and resistance levels of, for example a daily bar, is different then those of the weekly bar.  In this case the weekly bars takes the noise out of the daily bars.  Of course you can also use this as intraday or any other usable time frames.

The next question in this strategy is if there is anything which can confirm the signal from the above time frame strategy?  Let?s look to the Relative Strength Index, not to be confused with a relative strength comparison of a stock to a market index or group of other stocks.

The RSI is a ratio - the numerator is a moving average of the up closing prices divided by a moving average of the down closing prices.  Then the number is normalized to a value between 1 and 100.  Readings above 50 indicate that the average net difference in closing prices is positive.  A downward force is indicated when the reading is below the 50 level because the average net difference in closing prices is negative.  It is not important to look at peaks or bottoms of the RSI at this time.

Looking at the next chart we see the same YEN against the EURO but now we have added the RSI to it at the bottom of the chart.




Figure 2 ? EUR/YEN

At point A the close was higher the previous weekly high so the trend was up, while at the same time the RSI reading was above 50 confirming the strength.  At point B the close was below the previous weekly low and almost confirmed by the RSI reading below 50, actually it was the next day.  At point C see we got a change to up trend again because the close was above the previous weekly high and the RSI reading above 50 was confirming this signal.

Now let?s have a look to another sample, the Singapore Dollar (Figure 3).  This chart shows daily bars (red) and weekly bars around them (blue).  At the point A the new down trend was confirmed by the RSI reading while at point B the up trend got confirmation from the RSI as well.  Around point C the net result was actually zero after getting first a down trend followed by a quick trend change to a new up trend.  At point D we got a nice downtrend signal again with clear confirmation by the RSI.




Figure 3 ? SGD/USD

Of course many combinations are possible including intraday, like 1 minute bars and 5 minute bars of 1 hour/5 hour bars.

Figure 4 is the Australian Dollar/US Dollar using 3 hour bars and daily bars.  The daily bars are based on a 15 hour time frame, so therefore we see intraday bars per trading day.  On October 31 we see the intraday 3 hour bar closing below the previous daily low and the 3 hour RSI below the 50 level, so a first indication to close all long positions and take a first step for a short position.

At the close of October 31 we see for the first time that both RSI indicators, the one on the 3 hour bars and the one on the daily bars, are both below



Figure 4 ? AUD/USD

Of course you can use another indicator for confirmation instead of the RSI, like the standard MACD or Ergodic Candlestick Oscillator.  Also you can add several indicators to on the bars itself to get even a more clear picture.

Think about the Swing on the bar highs and lows or moving averages, however the combination of RSI and multiple time frames is very simple and useful.

 

[Icy]

Using Two Popular Oscillators: Slow Stochastics and Relative Strength

Two of the more popular computer-generated technical indicators are the Slow Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillators. (An oscillator, defined in market terms, is a technical study that attempts to measure market price momentum?such as a market being overbought or oversold.)

I?ll define and briefly discuss these two oscillators, and then I?ll tell you how I use them in my market analysis and trading decisions.

Slow Stochastics:
George Lane has been called the father of the stochastic indicator. I met this gentleman a few years ago. He and his wife still attend and participate in trading seminars around the U.S. Lane?s basic premise is as follows: During periods of price decreases, daily closes tend to accumulate near the extreme lows of the day. Periods of price increases tend to show closes accumulating near the extreme highs of the day. The stochastic study is an oscillator designed to indicate oversold and overbought market conditions.

Some technical analysts, including me, prefer the slow stochastic rather than the normal stochastic. The slow stochastic is simply the normal stochastic smoothed via a moving average technique. The slow stochastic, like the normal stochastic study, generates two lines. They are %K and %D. The stochastic has overbought and oversold zones. Lane suggests using 80 as the overbought zone and 20 as the oversold zone. Some technicians prefer 75 and 25. I like to use the 80-20 figures.

Lane also contends the most important signal is divergence between %D and the commodity. He explains divergence as the process where the stochastic %D line makes a series of lower highs while the commodity makes a series of higher highs. This signals an overbought market. An oversold market exhibits a series of lower lows while the %D makes a series of higher lows.

When one of the above patterns appears, you should anticipate a market signal. You initiate a market position when the %K crosses the %D from the right-hand side. A right-hand crossover is when the %D has bottomed or topped and is moving higher or lower and the %K crosses the %D line. According to Lane, the most reliable trades occur with divergence and when the %D is between 10 and 15 for a buy signal and between 85 and 90 for a sell signal.

Relative Strength Index:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a J. Welles Wilder, Jr. trading tool. The main purpose of the study is to measure the market's strength or weakness. A high RSI, above 70, suggests an overbought or weakening bull market. Conversely, a low RSI, below 30, implies an oversold market or dying bear market. While you can use the RSI as an overbought and oversold indicator, it works best when a failure swing occurs between the RSI and market prices. For example, the market makes new highs after a bull market setback, but the RSI fails to exceed its previous highs



Figure 1 - RSI

Another use of the RSI is divergence. Market prices continue to move higher/lower while the RSI fails to move higher/lower during the same time period. Divergence may occur in a few trading intervals, but true divergence usually requires a lengthy time frame, perhaps as much as 20 to 60 trading intervals.

Selling when the RSI is above 70 or buying when the RSI is below 30 can be an expensive trading system. A move to those levels is a signal that market conditions are ripe for a market top or bottom. But it does not, in itself, indicate a top or a bottom. A failure swing or divergence accompanies the best trading signals.

The RSI exhibits chart formations as well. Common bar chart formations readily appear on the RSI study. They are trendlines, head and shoulders, and double tops and bottoms. In addition, the study can highlight support and resistance zones.

How I employ Slow Stochastics and the RSI:

First of all, these two oscillators, especially the RSI, tend to be over-used by many traders.  As you just read above, some traders use these oscillators to generate buy and sell signals in markets - even as an overall trading system. However, I treat the RSI and Slow Stochastics as just a couple more trading tools in my trading toolbox. I use them in certain situations, but only as ?secondary? tools. I tend to use most computer-generated technical indicators as secondary tools when I am analyzing a market or considering a trade. My ?primary? trading tools include chart patterns, fundamental analysis and trend lines.

Oscillators tend not to work well in markets that are in a strong trend. They can show a market at either an overbought or oversold reading, while the market continues to trend strongly. Another example of oscillators not working well is when a market trades into the upper boundary of a congestion area on the chart and then breaks out on the upside of the congestion area. At that point, it?s likely that an oscillator such as the RSI or Slow Stochastics would show the market as being overbought and possibly generate a sell signal?when in fact, the market is just beginning to show its real upside power.

I do look at oscillators when a market has been in a decent trend for a period of time, but not an overly strong trend. I can pretty much tell by looking at a bar chart if a market is ?extended? (overbought or oversold), but will employ the RSI or Slow Stochastics to confirm my thinking. I also like to look at the oscillators when a market has been in a longer-term downtrend.  If the readings are extreme, say a reading of 10 or below on Slow Stochastics or RSI, that is a good signal the market is well oversold and could be due for at least an upside correction.  However, I still would not use an oscillator, under this circumstance, to enter a long-side trade in straight futures, as that would be trying to bottom-pick.

These two oscillators are not perfect and are certainly not the ?Holy Grail? that some traders continually seek. However, the RSI and Slow Stochastics are useful tools to employ under certain market conditions.



Forecasted Moving Averages: Creating Leading Indicators through Intermarket Analysis

When you review all of the technical indicators available to traders in today's analytical software, moving averages are still one of the most popular and widely-used indicators to help identify market trends. Moving averages form the basis of many single-market, trend-following trading strategies, ranging from the popular 4-9-18-day moving average "crossover" approach to the widely followed 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages used to highlight the underlying trend direction of broad market indexes and individual stocks.

Moving averages, calculated according to precise mathematical formulae, are an objective (quantitative) way to ascertain the current trend direction of a market and develop expectations about its future direction. Moving averages filter out the random "noise" in past price data by "smoothing" or "averaging" out the fluctuations in price movement.
Lagging Behind
However, traditional moving averages have one very serious deficiency: They are a '"lagging" technical indicator. By virtue of their mathematical construction (averaging prices over a number of prior periods), they have to rely on past prices that have already occurred so tend to lag behind the current market price.

"Making trades based upon the analysis of moving averages typically results in getting into and out of the market late when you compare the points at which the market's price actually makes a top or bottom and when it changes trend direction," points out Lou Mendelsohn, developer of VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software. "Depending on the market's price movement and the type and size of moving average used, this lag effect can be substantial, causing the difference between trading success and failure in today's highly volatile, global financial markets."

Notice, for example, how the moving average lags behind the market at major turning points on Figure 1, a chart of daily prices of the U.S. Dollar Index futures contract with its actual 10-day simple moving average.



Figure 1 - Daily prices of the 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds with its actual 10-day simple moving average.  Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)

This lag is the Achilles' heel of moving averages. Technical analysts have spent years on research in a futile effort to eliminate this lag while still retaining the beneficial "smoothing" effects of moving averages. As a result, numerous types of moving averages have been devised, each with its own mathematical construction and effectiveness at discerning the underlying market trend and ability to minimize the lag effect.

Complexity Doesn't Help
Moving averages are often incorporated into more complex technical indicators, such as moving average crossover strategies, to improve their effectiveness. One such approach involves two simple moving averages of different lengths, such as a 5-day and a 10-day average. When the short moving average value is greater than the long moving average value, the underlying trend is assumed to be up. When the short moving average value is less than the long moving average value, the trend is assumed to be down.

The chart of the New York light crude oil futures contract provides an example of how the shorter 5-day moving average is more responsive to current price action than the longer 10-day simple moving average (see Figure 2), but both still lag behind the market at major turning points.




Figure 2 - Chart of daily prices of the U.S. Dollar Index with its actual 5-day and 10-day simple moving averages. Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)

An inherent assumption behind moving averages is that once a trend is underway, it tends to persist. Therefore, until the long moving average is penetrated by the short moving average in the direction opposite from the prevailing trend, an uptrend is assumed to remain intact.

Traditional moving average crossover strategies are effective at identifying the current market direction in strongly trending markets. In non-trending, sideways markets, however, and even in trending markets when very short moving averages may be overly sensitive to abrupt price fluctuations, these approaches are subject to whipsaws. This results in erroneous trading signals at market tops and bottoms. So, while traders can make money in trending markets using moving averages, it is the choppy markets, increasingly more common today, that can cause substantial trading losses.


Various crossover strategies have been created in a further effort to overcome this deficiency. One popular approach compares an actual price, such as the daily close, with a moving average value. Other commonly-used approaches attempt to minimize whipsaws and filter out faulty signals by using bands surrounding the moving averages, using three or more moving averages, or combining moving averages with other single-market technical indicators for additional confirmation.
With today's unprecedented intraday and interday market volatility, caused in no small measure by the globalization of the markets and resulting effects of related markets on one another, traders can no longer rely solely on single-market lagging indicators such as moving averages. Knowing that a market made a top or bottom several days ago is no longer an effective way to make trading decisions, if it ever was. Even a one-day lag in today's fast-paced, globally interconnected markets is too long to wait for this information.

"It is imperative that traders adopt an intermarket perspective and incorporate intermarket data into their current trading strategies, so they can develop effective leading indicators that correspond to how today's global financial markets really exist," Mendelsohn contends.

New Way to Forecast
The purpose of technical analysis is to identify the underlying market trend and forecast (or at the very least extrapolate) its future course for the purpose of making profitable trading decisions. Therefore, it seems logical that this goal could best be achieved through applying leading indicators that use both single-market and intermarket data, rather than by continuing to rely upon trend-following indicators such as traditional moving averages that are computed solely on past single-market data.

Theoretically, a predicted moving average value for a future date, if it were 100% accurate, would have, by definition, no lag whatsoever. Since this is impossible, something else must be done to bring this widely-used trend-following indicator into the 21st century of trend forecasting.

One innovative solution to this dilemma transforms moving averages into a leading indicator by using both single-market and intermarket price, volume and open interest futures data as inputs into the design of neural networks, which are then trained to make short-term forecasts of moving averages.

"Neural networks are a mathematical technology from the field of artificial intelligence and can be trained to find reoccurring patterns and relationships within both single-market and intermarket data that can be applied to market forecasting," Mendelsohn explains.

"These forecasted moving averages are then incorporated into predictive moving average crossover strategies that identify market trend direction of individual financial markets with very high accuracy."

For instance, to forecast the short-term trend direction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures for the next several days, neural networks can be trained on past single-market data on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond itself, in addition to intermarket data from various related markets. Sophisticated software can be used to analyze related markets to forecast several moving averages of different lengths and of different forecast time horizons on 30-year Treasury bond futures. This could include a 5-day average for two days in the future and a 10-day average for four days in the future. The related markets would include the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, U.S. Dollar Index, Euro FX, Comex Gold Index, S&P 500 Index, Japanese Yen, Eurodollar, Bridge/CRB Index and New York light crude oil.


Figure 3 shows a crossover of a predicted 10-day simple moving average for four days in the future with today's actual 10-day moving average for 30-year T-bond futures. Notice that the predicted moving average, because it is forecasted in advance, does not lag behind the market, while the actual 10-day average lags behind both the market and the predicted average.



Figure 3 - Chart of daily prices of the Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Forex pair with a 10-day predicted and actual moving average crossover. This charts shows that the market has moved over 600 pips total for the three moves depicted. 600 pips equals about $6900. Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)

Each day as the neural networks are updated with the most recent single-market and intermarket data, new moving average forecasts are made, and the difference in value between each predicted and actual moving average of the same length is determined.

Crossover Signals That Pay Off
In this simple example, when the predicted moving average crosses the actual moving average from above to below (the difference goes from positive to negative), the market trend is expected to turn down within the forecast time horizon. When the difference reaches a maximum negative value and starts to narrow (indicating that the downward trend is beginning to lose strength), this is an early warning that the market is poised to make a bottom and turn up.

Rather than wait for the crossover itself to occur, trading decisions can be based on a narrowing in the difference. For instance, when the difference reaches a maximum negative value and starts to narrow, you can act on this information in a number of ways depending on your account size, risk propensity, trading style and objectives. Mendelsohn cites just three possible scenarios that can be pursued (assuming that you are in a short position):

? If the difference reaches a maximum negative value and narrows by even a small amount, you can close out your short position and stand aside. Then you can wait for the difference to narrow further before going long.

? If the difference reaches a maximum negative value and narrows by even a small amount, you can tighten your stop and stay in your short position until the next day.

? If the difference reaches a maximum negative value and narrows by a minimal amount, you can close out your short position and go long. This strategy is the most aggressive of the three because it involves reversing positions at the earliest indication that the current market trend is expected to make a bottom and change direction.

No Financial Crystal Ball
By employing leading indicators, using both single-market and intermarket data such as forecasted moving averages, early warnings of imminent changes in trend direction become apparent days before they show up on traditional price charts or can be identified by single-market trend-following indicators that lag the market.

Admittedly, it is impossible to create leading trend forecasting indicators that can forecast future market direction with 100% accuracy. This elusive Holy Grail is the financial market equivalent of a desert mirage. In reality, no more than 80%-85% predictive accuracy can ever be achieved, given the randomness and unpredictable events that are inherent in today's globally interdependent financial markets, as well as due to the daunting task of creating effective forecasting tools that can stay current with rapidly evolving, complex financial markets.

As the futures and equities markets become even more intertwined and more traders incorporate intermarket analysis into their trading strategies, powerful leading indicators, such as the predictive moving average crossover strategies that expand upon the concepts of popular trend-following indicators, are a must for serious traders. These indicators will allow traders to seize trading opportunities based on predictive information derived from the hidden relationships and complex patterns among related global markets.

[Icy]

3 Peaks and a Domed House

The 3 Peaks and a Domed House pattern was popularized by George Lindsay, a flamboyant stock market technician from the 1950s and 60s.  Lindsay correctly predicted the 1968 top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by utilizing this complex pattern that now bears his name.  Jerry Favors of www.jerryfavors.com without question has done more to bring this pattern to the technicians of the world than any other single individual.  I had the pleasure of making the acquaintance of Jerry over the years and came to respect his work as much as any other technical market analyst that I have ever met in my 40 plus years in this business.

H. M. Gartley in his classic book ?Profits in the Stock Market", also illustrated a very similar type pattern on page 214 of his book.  Gartley's book sold for the astronomical price of $1500.00 per copy at a time when the United States was in the grips of its worse depression since the inception of the country.  In 1937, $1500.00 would have bought 3 brand new Ford automobiles.  So you can easily do the math to see what the cost of that book would have equated to in present day prices.
Having studied technical analysis for over 5 decades, I have come across striking similarities among various patterns. Among these were Elliott Wave analysis and the Wycoff Method.  3 Peaks and a Domed House pattern has subtle characteristics that make it unique.

First, the price pattern is highly reliable at tops. However, it is less reliable at picking bottoms.  This is not surprising as fear is a greater emotion than greed, and fear driven markets have a tendency to drop farther and stay down longer than a top driven greed market.   The reason for this is that once a greed driven market has topped, fear sets in and the markets begin to rapidly descend confirming the topping pattern. 

Second, there are some interesting WD Gann concepts that appear in the 3 Peaks and the Domed House pattern.  Primarily, the relationship of the timing of the tops and the slope of the wave structure.  Lindsay's work was replete with complex multiple small waves forming the larger 3 Drive pattern.  Broken into smaller components makes it difficult at times, to see the forest for the trees. 

Third, important Fibonacci ratio's when applied to the 3 Peaks and a Domed House pattern makes for a startling revelation.  Instrumental in determining 3 Peaks and a Domed House are the Fibonacci expansion rations of 1.27 and 1.618 as most Fibonacci practitioners know that 1.27 is the square root of 1.618. 

Figure 1 is the 2006 Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart with the 3 Peaks and a Domed House pattern (my opinion only) as it appears to me as a Pattern Recognition swing trader.  If the reader will take some time to examine this chart he will see that timeframes between peak 1 and peak 2 are nearly similar of time frames between peak 2 and peak 3.  This is text book Gann, time to time equality, which is another way of saying markets repeat themselves many times. Peak 2 was exactly a 1.27 expansion from peak 1, and peak 3 was a 1.27 expansion of peak 2.  A Domed House is a 1.618 expansion of peak 3 completing the 3 Peaks and a Domed House pattern.   



Figure 1 - Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart
(The Chart as courtesy of Ensign software)

What is interesting about this pattern is that it has natural cycle implications due to the fact that the domed house occurs within the spring equinox.  Natural cycle phenomenon including astrology was one of the hallmarks of WD Gann. 

In conclusion, there is a strong probability that the top of the stock market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average occurred in late March 2006 possibly beginning a vicious bear market at a time when the overall bullish enthusiasm for stocks was peaking. 

Caveat Emptor: Buyer Beware

This opinion is predicated on the conclusion that the Dow Jones will not exceed 11,350 before starting a very vicious bear leg to the downside taking the Dow below 10,600 by the fall of 2006.

[sara80]

 

[IPSUM]

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[Icy]

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[Icy]

[Icy]

Breakout Entries 


I have been in the trading business for over 15 years as a trader, fund manager and trainer. I began my career on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. While I feel like I have seen it all, the one thing that still surprises me is how most traders handle breakouts.  Most traders seem to let emotion complicate what can really be a simple, rule based and very profitable strategy. Trading breakouts can be high-risk, high-stress, low-reward and low probability or this strategy can be low-risk, low-stress, high-reward, and high probability. The difference lies in how you enter into this type of position.

Before getting into the details of the strategy, it is important to understand two key components of markets.

1.   Why do prices move in any market?  Price in any market turns at price levels where demand and supply are out of balance.  The consistently profitable trader is able to identify a demand and supply imbalance, which means knowing where the REAL buyers and sellers are in a market.

2.   Who is on the other side of your trade? Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those who do not know what they are doing into the accounts of those who do. The consistently profitable trader makes sure a novice trader is on the other side of their trades.

The Logic

Notice area ?A? in Figure 1 below.  Area ?A? is the origin of a strong rally in price.  Most breakout traders will look to buy as price breaks out to the upside from area ?A.?  This type of breakout entry is typically the ?sucker bet.?  Traders see price moving higher from area ?A? and give in to emotion and buy into that initial rally. The problem is that by the time they buy the breakout of area ?A,? price has moved so far that it becomes a high risk and low reward trade. 

Instead, I sit back and let the breakout happen because that breakout tells me that there is a demand and supply imbalance at area ?A,? this is exactly where the buyers are. Next, I wait for price to return to area ?A.?  When it does at ?C,? I am a very interested buyer as I am confident that I am buying from a novice seller.  I know this because the seller at ?C? is making the two mistakes that every consistently losing (novice) trader makes. First, they are selling after a period of selling and they are selling at a price level where demand exceeds supply.
 

[Icy]

Three Things a Winner Knows 

Trading= Risk

The winner understands and accepts risk. This gives him the most important quality he can have: a trader?s mindset. His trader?s mindset insures he does not hesitate to take trades. He understands that his success or failure lies not in taking trades, but in not taking trades. The difference between working very hard all week and making little or even losing, versus making a respectable return can often be the difference between just one or two trades.     

Definitive Trigger

The winner knows exactly when to click the mouse to enter a trade because even before he traded live he had done it dozens and then hundreds of times in a demo account. His trade set-up is spelled out well ahead of time and he knows the exact market-circumstances that define his trade signal because he has seen it in all its varieties hundreds if not thousands of times. From the moment he enters the trade he knows and accepts what his total risk is on the trade   

Exact Trade Management

The winner has a definite comfort level that comes from knowing just what to do under nearly every trading scenario imaginable.  The winner also does not let the circumstances of his last trade effect what he does on his current trade, and only takes direction from his trading plan which he has written out himself, and is more familiar to him than any other study.  He knows only price gives him his trading determinants and his success depends on focus and repetition

Jay Norris