Icy
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« ตอบ #45 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 07, 2010, 11:26:26 PM » |
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Market Traps, Novice Traders Beware
There is a hand signal we use on the trading floor. The signal is to put your hand to your throat like your choking yourself. The name for this signal is "hung." Not a pretty visual I know but its meaning is just as uncomfortable. A trader will do this when they are stuck in a very bad losing position. Most often, it was someone buying right into supply (resistance) right before price collapsed, or selling short right into demand (support), right before a strong rally. Whether the action was a mistake or simply foolish trading like they do in Foolsville, the result can be catastrophic which is where the floor trading hand signal, hung, derived its name.
A more common name for this in the world of technical analysis is the Bull Trap and Bear Trap, two of my favorite market opportunities. Before diving in and learning what this looks like on a chart and how we trade this, it is important that you understand how to properly think this setup.
The Logic When there is a news or economic event that invites the masses into the market to buy and price happens to be into an objective supply level with a significant profit margin below, we have a Bull Trap scenario. What happens is that an above average number of buyers buy after a rally in price and right into supply with plenty of room for price to fall below. So, once the last buyer buys, the masses are stuck buying the high price, no more buyers, price collapses. Most of those buyers now have to sell for a loss which only helps price slide lower. It was, however, the combination of the positive event and price being at a level where supply exceeds demand that was key. An "event" can be in the form of news or a popular chart pattern such as a breakout, for example.
The Rules When a significant event invites buyers into the market and price is at supply and you have an appropriate profit margin below, sell short.
When a significant event invites sellers into the market and price is at demand and you have an appropriate profit margin above, buy.
Mastering the Mental Side If you own a car dealership and are in the business of selling cars for profit, who do you want walking through your doors? Choice A: people who work at other car dealerships and sell cars. Choice B: people who are buying a car for the first time. Of course, we are going to choose choice "B." People who work in the car industry know the real value of cars which means it will be harder to sell to them at desirable prices if you're the dealer. The new car owner knows much less about the true value and will also give in to emotions such as greed. This individual will bring your dealership a much higher profit. Make sure you are trading with market speculators that have no idea what they are doing. Sell to them when price is at a level that you know is too high. Buy from them when price is at a level that you know is too low.
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #46 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 08, 2010, 12:00:55 AM » |
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volume weight average price
The vertical bell curve like thing on the left shows volume histogram meaning:
- starting from the StartDate(which you have to set at indicator properties)how much volume was on which price level.The price level with a longer aqua line had seen more volume than shorter ones.
-Peak Volume Price(PVP) shows starting from the StartDate at which price there was the most volume.How do I calculate it.Simple. Every bar has a volume and every bar has a price range. I distribute that bar volume to those price range in a simple distribution function.So we have that nice volume distribution. You will see that red PVP line always follows the longest aqua bar in the distribution.Thats its job it shows the longest bar in a continuos way.
For strategies definitely I would advise you to read the thread that I referred at earlier post. But for a quick explanation. VWAP shows the average of the volume distribution meaning there are equal volume on both sides of the VWAP line. If VWAP is above PVP that means there has been more volume above the PVP. So we except price to move up when it gets close to VWAP(usually reflecting from VWAP or SD1)
So in a very simple way -if VWAP is above PVP think going long at VWAP to SD1Positive or SD1Positive to SD2Positive -if VWAP is below PVP think going short at VWAP to SD1Negative or SD1Negative to SD2Negative
But this is like explaining how to fly a plane in 3 sentences so I definitely advise you again to read those threads.
Another point is, this was not designed for forex. This is usually used in a market which you have real volume and a real starting bell ringing at a fixed start time. So I am just experimenting to adapt it. StartDate is important. Since we dont have a startDate in forex maybe adding a separate indicator for every session (Asian-London-NY) can be more meaningfull.
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #47 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 08, 2010, 12:12:44 AM » |
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Trends
Sometimes we just need to keep things simple. I live by this motto in my personal trading career and always send the same message to each and every one of my classroom and Extended Learning Track (XLT) students. Trading should be clear and practical at all times. The minute we make things too complicated, the account usually suffers as a result. I have been there and bought the t-shirt! After experimenting with various technical indicators and chart patterns, I soon realized that the most important requirement for ongoing trading success was not so much in the intricate details of the strategy, but in the consistency of following a simple set of rules time and time again. As we all know, there are many ways to do the same thing in this world and in terms of technical analysis, things are no different. Each trader should make it their aim to decide which tools are right for them, and then use them practically as part of a solid trading plan.
In the process of planning my trades, I like to study three simple aspects before I will consider any market opportunity. These are as follows:
1. What is the Trend?
2. Where can I Buy or Sell for a High Probability Low Risk Trade?
3. Is my Risk worth the potential Reward?
By paying attention to these three vital areas of importance well before I even enter an order, I can always be sure that I am being as objective as possible when scanning for setups. This week I would like to explore our first topic on the list: Trend. If we don't even have a feel for market direction, there is little point in even considering a trade in the first place.
When it comes down to it, there are only two market conditions we should ever be faced with – a Trend and a Range. Range-bound markets are periods of consolidation and relative to time frame, can offer very little opportunity. Many novice traders suffer heavy losses during ranges, as they try to force trades and are led into buying or selling every time the market looks like it may be gathering steam, only to be stopped out on a false signal. Trending markets, on the other hand, can be much easier to deal with as there is a clear direction one way or the other and setups on these kinds of markets tend to offer the highest rewards for the lowest risk. I would always recommend that the new trader only look for opportunities to trend trade in the early stages of their career. One of the many beneficial aspects of trading the Global Forex Markets is that they tend to create much longer trends in price action than other asset classes and instruments, mainly due to the fact that the market is so large and is fundamentally driven by economic data unique to whole nations and continents. This dynamic allows the trend following traders plenty of high probability opportunities to take part in some of the biggest moves across all the instruments available to trade. It is always easier to go with the trend than to fight it. Therefore, it is vital that before each and every planned speculation, all traders should first gauge market direction and stack the odds on their side by going with the dominant force. Let's look at a few different ways to identify trend in any Forex pair. (Please note all examples are for downtrends so the reverse is applicable for uptrends).
Using Price Action By far the most classic method to identify a trend is to just look at price action itself. As we can see from the below example, in a sustained downtrend, we will see a repetition of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. In this example, we can see that the market is continually failing to make new highs every time it puts in a rally. In this case, we would say that the Bears or the Highs are in control. Each rally gives the professional market players another opportunity to load up and sell high, driving prices further to the downside with new lows being made with ease. It is in this environment where we often see previous levels of support broken and becoming new areas of resistance in the future.
One particular technique used to rejoin the trend is to look for rallies in price to previous support areas which are likely to now be recharged areas of supply. Many breakout traders will often sell the market on the break of a previous low, hoping to see the market push further down with increased momentum.
Drawing Trendlines Technical Analysis is by no means new to the world. Traders and investors have been charting price for years, well before the advent of the digital age and charting software. Many used to draw charts by hand, and one of the original ways in which they would confirm a trend was to physically draw a trendline on their charts. Today, we are lucky enough to have powerful PC applications to chart price and use built-in tools to do the very same job. Trendlines can be useful for clearly illustrating the dominant price direction as show below:
Typically, we need three points to confirm and draw any trendline on a chart, no matter the time frame used. In downtrends, we draw the line above price at the highs, and in uptrends, we would draw the line below price at the lows. After the trendline has been drawn and inserted, we now have two uses for it. The first is as an entry method to join the trend where we would sell the pair when the trend line is tested, looking for a further push to the downside. The second use is as a signal of a possible direction change. If the trendline is broken by price, we could then take this as a signal that the trend is over and now abandon and rethink the plan. As useful as trendlines can be, it is vital to remember that anytime you draw a line, it should be obvious. Each trader may draw their line a little differently from someone else and therefore there is a danger of subjective analysis. Always be as objective as you can.
Moving Averages Moving Averages are another of the classic Technical Analysis tools. Depending on the setting the user defines, they will dynamically track the average price of an asset over a preset period of time. For example, a 20-period Moving Average will take the current price bar and the 19 bars preceding it and work out the average price over that set period of time. In this example, let's apply the 50 and 200 Moving Averages to our chart. Remember the longer the period of data analyzed, the more reliable the information becomes:
Confirmation of the downtrend is given by the fact that the Moving Averages are sloping down with price, suggesting that the current price itself is well below average, or falling. When current price is below both the 200 and 50 period Moving Averages, it would be ideal to look for only the highest probability shorting opportunities on offer. Some would even use the Moving Averages as an area of entry, which can be riskier at times. They act in a very similar fashion to the classic trendline when used in this manner, and can also be used for a signal of a break of trend if price manages to trade over them, or can also be used to trail stops to lock in profit from successful trades.
Using the ADX Indicator I am a big fan of technical indicators which are used to analyze price action rather than give entry signals, and one such tool is the ADX or Average Directional Index. The ADX does not give the trader signals to buy or sell and it is non-directional in nature; however, its fundamental use comes instead from giving us a gauge of how strong the current trend is itself. Typically, it will display a numerical value and anything less than a reading of 15 suggests that there is no trend and when it is above 30, this is a signal that a strong trend is in place. This is how it looks when plotted on a chart:
As we can see, when the ADX is rising, this is a sign that the trend is getting stronger and that momentum is building within the price action. If you were solely a trend trader, this could be a useful tool to help you ascertain the best trend following opportunities available to you in the market. However, I personally have adjusted the readings I use with the ADX. I like to look for trades when the ADX is actually getting to a reading of around 25, rather than the traditional 30. This is due to the fact that I am looking for the trend to strengthen after I have joined the move and I don't want to be late to the game. A more aggressive trader could adopt this approach if need be but it is important to define rules for yourself in your trading which suit and respect your personality.
So there we have four simple ways to identify a trend and help us to keep on the right side of the market. The tool which you choose to use is not the important part of the puzzle though; rather, it is how you use the tool itself and the rules you build around the trade which really matter in the long run. If you decide that you will only take short trades in a downtrend and long trade in an uptrend, then you have already taken an objective rule-based approach to your trading activities, thus allowing you to be objective and unemotional when it comes to pushing the button. As traders, we need to limit our opportunities to only the times when the odds are stacked in our favor, rather than jumping into the market without any proper planning and this my friends, is only achievable when we start right from the basics. I hope this helped.
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #48 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 08, 2010, 12:19:58 AM » |
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Trading Mistakes
The following list contains the most common trading mistakes that we will cover in this article.
1. Not using a “trading plan” 2. Not having a money management game plan 3. Not using protective stop loss orders 4. Closing winning trades early and letting losing trades run 5. Overstaying your position 6. Averaging a losing trade 7. Increasing your risk with success 8. Overtrading your account 9. Failure to take profits from your account 10. Changing your trade plan in mid-trade 11. Not having patience 12. Not having discipline
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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newa
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« ตอบ #49 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 09, 2010, 05:25:31 PM » |
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ขอบคุณค่ะคุณ Icy
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บันทึกการเข้า
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Icy
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« ตอบ #50 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 13, 2010, 11:43:19 PM » |
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The 3 Duck's Trading System A common sense approach to price observation Buy when prices are going higher and sell when prices are going lower. In a nutshell this is my goal when I am trading the forex market. But the above statement of buying when prices are going higher or selling when prices are going lower may be too broad and therefore it may need some guidelines and rules, this is where The 3 Duck’s Trading System comes into play. The system will help you identify buying opportunities in the direction of the last uptrend and selling opportunities in the direction of the last downtrend. The “ducks” in the title comes from the saying “to have all your ducks lined up” an expression meaning to have everything in the correct order. There are three ducks, the first duck will help you to identify the last up or down trend, the second duck helps to confirm the direction of the trend and the third duck will help to identify buying or selling opportunity in the direction of the trend. This system involves using three different timeframe, a 4 hour chart (first duck), a 1 hour chart (second duck) and a 5 min. chart (third duck). A 60 period simple moving average is applied to all three timeframes. That’s what I call keeping it simple! How it works: Step 1 - The first duck The first thing we need to do is look at our largest time-frame (4hr chart) and see if current prices are above or below the 60 sma. From this chart we can see that current price is above the 60 sma. This tells us that we maybe looking to buy. Step 2 - The second duck The second thing we need to do is drop down to our 1hr chart. We need to see the current price above the 60 sma on this chart also, this gives us confirmation. Important: If the current price was to be below the 60 sma on this chart we could not move on to step 3. Step 3 - The third duck From step 1 and 2, current prices need to be above their 60 sma's on each chart. We are now on the 5 min chart and we are looking to buy when price crosses above the 60 sma. For extra confirmation we should let prices break the last high on the 5 min chart. This would mean that prices will be above their 60 sma on all 3 time-frames, therefore all 3 Ducks are lined up in the same direction. Stop-Losses: This is where you can make this system your own. If you are a short term trader you may want to put your stop-loss below the lows on the 5 min or the 1 hr chart. If you are more of a positional trader you may wish to put your stop-loss above a low on the 4 hr chart. You could also use a fixed stop-loss, maybe 25-30 pips or more from entry. It all depends what type of a trader you are, so you decide! If you are a longer term trader or investor, this system can help you get a good entry point into the market. Another "trick" that may help you preserve capital, if you do buy and prices get back below the 5 min 60 sma by 10 pips (not a good sign) you may want to cut your losses short before your stop-loss. But if you are a longer term trader this may not be a big deal for you. Targets: Same again, depends what type of a trader you are but target can be support or resistance levels. Summary: The above example was carried out when the eur/usd was trading higher so obviously we where buying - the system works just as well for selling opportunities, just look for prices to be below the 60 sma on all 3 time-frames, starting with step 1 again. I like this system a lot as it does not try to out-guess the markets movements and pick tops and bottoms. The system will quickly tell you to be a buyer or a seller. It’s a good honest system that tries to follow prices. This system works better on currency pairs such as the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, but there is nothing stopping you from plotting this system on any pair, but as we know some pairs act differently to others. The best time I found for trading this system is the European and US sessions. I like to use this system as a guide in addition to my own market knowledge. Take care to watch what is going on around you - economic new releases, holidays etc. Good Luck with the 3 Duck's Trading System. http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/the-3-ducks-trading-system/
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #52 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 09:41:31 PM » |
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Amazing GBP/JPY Indicator Buy WHEN : 1.the price enter Upper Box Green Area After past the red Box…………….OK! 2.EMA 5 (red line) Upper EMA 13 (yellow line)………OK! 3.RSI >55……………………OK!Sell WHEN : 1.the price enter Bottom Box Green Area After past the red box………..OK! 2.EMA 5 (red line) Below EMA 13 (yellow line)……OK! 3.RSI <45……….ok!……….SELLTOPTREND.mq4 BreakOut_PANCA_EAGLE__indicator.mq4 http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2078
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« แก้ไขครั้งสุดท้าย: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 09:44:07 PM โดย Icy »
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บันทึกการเข้า
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #53 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 10:37:54 PM » |
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The Rules of Day Trading
Note: These Rules Are Only For Day Trading, Not For Long Term or Position trading. A trading plan is essential for success. It is utterly impossible to succeed at trading without a concrete plan. The following are suggestions, some general, some specific, that I think will help traders achieve their goals. GENERAL POINTS • Homework: The study of specific scripts and their relationship to the overall market is essential. It is suggested that the trader work at least one hour outside of market hours on familiarization with scripts that could be traded the next day. As time goes on, the trader will have greater understanding of the widely traded scripts, and will be able to better judge information for potential opportunities. Weekends require at least 2-3 hours of study to setup for the following week. The trader should be prepared to spend a minimum of 10 hours a week outside market hours on this planning and study. • Schedule: A standard schedule is essential. The trader should arrive at the trading center 45 minutes before the market opens (or more) and plan on being there all day. Before the market opens: The trader should have a list of potential trading scripts from his homework from the prior evening.
He should look at these as to how they traded intraday the day before, and draw conclusions as to whether or not he will follow them when the market opens. The trader should have his attention on the market, and on nothing else, be rested, and be ready to attack the market. If there is some outside influence that could take attention off the market, the trader should cease trading until the situation is addressed and handled, and he can trade without external influences that could have a detrimental effect. • Taking heat: This is the term used for watching a trade go the wrong way. It is the number one reason why traders lose money. Losses are inevitable. Nobody makes money every day. The key to winning overall is to limit the losses and offset them by winning trades.
The trader should never take more than a set limit of heat. In our personal experience, it is extremely difficult to set a number limit on how much heat, such as one-half a point, etc. • Maximum Shares per Trade Traders with little experience get wiped out by trading large amounts of shares. Until the trader is making money consistently, i.e. 10 trading days in a row with no losing days, the number of shares should be limited • Mistakes Traders make mistakes. The most common mistake is to sell when one wants to buy, and vice versa. The computer can go down, the feed to the exchange can be interrupted. There are a lot of things that can go wrong. The trader must assume full responsibility for any mistake that occurs. Open positions should be exited immediately (almost always at a loss) when a mistake occurs. • Number of Trades Per Day Trading too much in one day is the third reason why traders lose money consistently. There is absolutely no reason to trade more than 5 trades per day. The maximum number of trades should be limited to 5 per day. • Maximum Positions at One Time: The trader should try and limit himself to one open position at a time. Two positions is acceptable, but three is not. This is more of a general rule
Holding overnight is usually done to try and avoid a loss. Holding overnight for an expected gain is too risky for the trader.
keep in mind this is for day traders All rules are made to be broken. All rules can be safely broken under certain circumstances. But in my experience, breaking more than one rule is a grave mistake, and reduces the possibility of success to less than 25%. It should not be done. • Trading Regimen Every trader has a regimen; a style or set of rules that he follows to choose trades. For example, most day traders use technical analysis as part of their personal regimen to form conclusions.
The personal regimen would include the specifics of what indicators are used and why. These regimens are constantly being refined and polished, due to the fact that the market changes all the time, and what worked 6 months ago may not work now. The trader must have a personal regimen, a specific set of rules or guidelines that he follows.
This must be in writing. These guidelines must be his own, in other words, he must not use another trader screaming or some computer program, or anything else, to make his FINAL decisions.
He must make his final decisions himself, and he can't do it without a personal regimen.
The personal trading regimen helps the trader refine his skills and learn what works and what does not. He can change his regimen at any time, of course, but he must have something to change.
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #54 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 10:40:18 PM » |
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Here are the Different Trading Styles of different Trader around the globe. Which one is your favorite?
1. Day Trading 2. Position Trading 3. Swing Trade. 4. Scalp.
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #55 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 10:54:47 PM » |
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Stopping Volume Patternhttp://emini-watch.com/tradestation-easylanguage-code/400/BBand Stop Alert.ex4 Professional profit taking is occurring when the following conditions are met: * Volume is greater than the previous bar's volume * Range is less than the previous bar's range * A new high is made (in an uptrend) or a new low (in a downtrend), and * Closes off the highs (in an uptrend) or off the lows (in a downtrend) The reduction in the bar's range is the real key. It shows that additional selling (in an uptrend) or additional buying (in a downtrend) is keeping the bar's range low. So Professional traders are taking profits and/or "fading" the current trend. You will almost always see Stopping Volume patterns leading up to a market turning point. However, if the trend is strong it might take several Stopping Volume patterns in a row to slow the trend. Remember, most turning points are Stopping Volume patterns, but not all Stopping Volume patterns are turning points!
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« แก้ไขครั้งสุดท้าย: มีนาคม 14, 2010, 11:06:36 PM โดย Icy »
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บันทึกการเข้า
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #56 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 21, 2010, 12:19:14 AM » |
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GANN HiLo Activator in Forex and the ways to use it:http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/mt4/gann-hilo-activatorTime frame: any. Currency: Major Currency This trend following indicator helps finding both: entries and exits. It allows to enter a trade quite early and stay in the trade longer. If you have a set of rules or a trading system that require some improvement on entries and exits, GANN HiLo Activator could be the right tool. GANN HiLo also looks interesting for scalping, all you need is to identify the main trend take either only Buy or Sell signals given by the indicator. For example, we can use 50 EMA to identify the main trend. Again, these are just great hints. In order to give you a set of rules, I need to make one first and test it properly. So, for now it will look like introduction, while hopefully later and also with a help of other traders I will update it to a good trading system with straight forward rules. This trading system may look too simple. however, you dont need a complex system to be succesful in forex pay attention to larger time frame to identify support and resistance level limit your loses and let your profit run and use trailing stop. Strategy requirements/setup: Time frame: daily Currency pair: any Trading setup: SMA 150, RSI (3) with horizontal lines at 80 and 20, Full Stochastic (6, 3, 3) with horizontal lines at 70 and 30. Trading rules: Entry for uptrend: when the price is above 150 SMA look for RSI to plunge below 20. Then look at Stochastic - once the Stochastic lines crossover occur and it is (must be) below 30 - enter Long with a new price bar. If at least one of the conditions is not met - stay out. Opposite for downtrend: when the price is below 150 SMA wait for the RSI to go above 80. Then if shortly after you see a Stochastic lines crossover above 70 - enter Short. Protective stop is placed at the moment of entry and is adjusted to the most recent swing high/low. Profits are going to be taken next way: Option 1 - using Stochastic - with the first Stochastic lines cross above 70 (for uptrend) / below 30 (for downtrend). Option 2 - using a trailing stop - for an uptrend a trailing stop is activated for the first time when Stochastic reaches 70. A trailing stop is placed below the previous bar's lowest price and is moved with each new price bar.
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« แก้ไขครั้งสุดท้าย: มีนาคม 21, 2010, 12:47:42 AM โดย Icy »
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บันทึกการเข้า
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #57 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 21, 2010, 10:01:43 AM » |
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Technical analysis tools were invented to help trader resolve problems and solve tasks , but not in any case to replace the human mind. Even a few mechanical trading systems require constant attention from the fully prepared specialist. My opinion - the main problem is - trader using MTS looses feeling of the market and degree of its deviation from the norms under which profitable results has been achieved. Because of this and other numerous reasons - still for a long time the most market operations will be made with direct participation of the people. Steve Nissan’s ideas of candlestick analysis (CANDLECHARTS - STEVE NISON), which is often referred to as price action, as well as the use 1-2-3 formation, developed by Charles Dowg (Îñíîâíûå ïîëîæåíèÿ òåîðèè Äîó), require understanding of the historical development of the trend. For making a decision it is important to clearly see the local price extremes, the distance between them by time and price, as well as the slope of the trend. Often, a trader who uses multiple tools in trade, committs technical errors for the sake of his own ideas in his mind; he draws zigzag of prices, which would be advantageous for his open warrant (order). Sometimes he refuse to adequately perceive the changed reality, which brings us losses, and this only exacerbates the situation. It is undeniable that when analyzing a large number of instruments, especially at several time periods, easy to come to erroneous conclusions about the situation. The idea, as a result of which were developed technical means, described in this article appeared as a result of the going through countless options for indicators “a la Zigzag ", I have not been able to find something suitable for marking historic trend. As a mathematical framework was decided to use two algorithms: 1) The idea is the basis of the first Doug Shaffa (Forex Trading : FX Strategy : Doug Schaff), who proposed in calculating the well-known indicator "Stohastik" instead of normalized average price values use MACD, as well as unique smoothing algorithm . As a result, we get a picture surpasses cycles present in the market, in the form of a smooth curve in the range from 0 to 100%. 2) However, there is a limitation of the above method. Each traded instrument has constantly changing cycles, and consequently we need to define such as the average number of time periods within the cycle. For this purpose we have developed an algorithm for computing the average Wiggle (half of period) . logic is: there are two simple MA with different periods of smoothing and calculated the distance in time between the points of intersection of these lines. The average value of distances among the last 50 intersections is the average Wiggle. This module is contained in the indicator Cycle_KROUFR_version.mq4. The comments also have shown the value and the average number of points which the price runs between these intersections and specified number of intersections by 2 MAs. Further, the average Wiggle used in Dag Shaffa optimized algorithm as a unit of the size of the technical cycle at the current time frames. Indicator MTF_Cycle_KROUFR_version - multitimeframe version Cycle_KROUFR_version.mq4, where data are derived from 3-x time periods - Current and two, in which a user external. Indicator MTF_Cycle_Point_KROUFR_version.mq4 - is intended to partition the trend with 2-x timeframes you have chosen. Small dots correspond to a smaller time frames, a large senior respectively, thus clearly see the extremes prices, which have been achieved at tradable instrument for the time when the line Cycle_KROUFR_version.mq4 indicator was above 50 level marks (for the appearance of blue dots), or below 50 (for the emergence of the red dots). Important: the point of partitioning trend appear when the indicator line crosses level mark 50, and it appears on prices extremes for the period of time when the line was in a indicator zone above / below 50. Ie there is no point in the current bar, or penultimate, but where found at the minimum / maximum price half cycle. (dot appears on max or min prices between indi line crosses level 50) This system partitioning trend is for traders to trade using formations based on the price and created to facilitate the perception of historical trend
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #58 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 21, 2010, 11:36:30 PM » |
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Scalping system #11 (The Center of Gravity)http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/scalping/center-of-gravitySubmitted by Ashur Alright first of all, I just want to say the indicators that i'm going to post and show are not mine so i take no credit for them. The center of gravity indicator was created by Oan, if you guys want to check out his site www.oan4x.com feel free to do so. The idea is based on Mostafa Belkhayate's system. Also the sweet spots indicator was taken from "Patrick Bourgeois" with his submission of "Trading by Psychological Levels". So I'm going to upload all the indicators, and all you do is, put them in Metatrader/Experts/Indicators folder. Im also going to upload the template so all you have to do is load the template. The rules are these: - Only trade 5 min chart - Only trade in the direction of the Center of Gravity lines, so if they are pointing downwards then you only enter short positions and if they are pointing upwards you only enter long positions - take profit is always one level above the level you entered your trade at. - to be honest with you i never used a stop loss i only closed the trade when the lines pointed against me, but i bet we can work something out for a stop loss in this site. - I mainly trade eur/usd and sometime gbp/usd, but i'm starting to look into trading the gbp/jpy also - trade this system on a demo account until you are ready, don't rush into the market. กฏการเทรด ด้วย ศุนย์กลางโน้มถ่วง
เล่นเฉพาะคาบ 5 นาที เท่านั้น เทรด ตามทิศทาง ของ ศูนย์กลางโน้มถ่วง ซึ่งถ้า มุ่งหน้าลง ก้อ ให้เข้าชอตเป็นหลัก หรือ ถ้ามุ่งหน้าขึ้น ก้อให้ เข้าลองเป็นหลัก ตัดกำไร ที่ระดับ แรก หรือ ระดับถัดไป เสมอ ผู้เขียน ส่วนใหญ่ ใช้เทรด ได้ผลดีกับ eur/usd บางครั้งก้อ gbp/usd (ไอซี่ สังเกตุ ว่า ใช้ได้ เกือบ ทุกสกุลเงิน รวมถึง น้ำมัน ยกเว้น ทอง) เรียนรู้ การเทรด แบบนี้ ด้วย ตัวเดโมก่อน อย่าผลีผลาม รีบร้อนไป ใช้ ในตลาดจริงTo enter a short position: - center of gravity lines must be pointing downwards - the price must be over the middle center of gravity line - you sell at the first level on the sweet spots indicator that the price hits - if price continues upwards you would sell at the 2nd level it hits once again. - take profit point would be at the line below the 1st level you entered at. Some times the market will not hit the target exactly so just to be safe put your take profit a few pips above it. การเข้าชอต
ทิศทางของ ศูนย์กลางโน้มถ่วง จะ ต้อง พุ่ง ในแนวลง ราคา จะต้องอยู่เหนือ เส้นกึ่งกลาง ศูนย์กลางโน้มถ่วง ทำชอต ที่ระดับแรก ของ ดัชนี sweet spots เมื่อราคาไปแตะ ถ้า ราคายัง คง หนีขึ้นไป อย่างต่อเนื่อง ให้ รอชอต ซ้ำที่ระดับ สอง ตัดกำไร ใต้ระดับ 1 ที่ ได้ทำชอต (ซึ่งบางครั้ง ตลาดจะไม่ แตะระดับเป้าหมายอย่างแท้จริง เพื่อความปลอดภัย รีบตัดกำไรทันที)To enter Long positions: vice versa short position rules การเข้าลอง ตรงข้ามกับ วิธีการเข้าชอตA few pointers: - try to stay away from Friday's and try to hold your self from trading NFP week. - I find the absolute best time to trade this system is 8AM-12PM Eastern Time. พยายามหบีกเลี่ยง การเทรด แบบนี้ ในวันศุกร์ เวลาเทรดที่ดีที่สุด คือ ช่วงตลาดนิวยอร์คเท่านั้นNote: This system does repaint, so backtesting is useless. But don't worry the system is very profitable, it just takes some practice. You will see its true value with a little bit of forward testing Once again I'd like to thank "Oan from www.oan4x.com" for helping me, "Patrick Bourgeois" for the indicator, and all the people form www.forexfactory.com that helped edit and put together this system. If I forgot to add something, I will edit and put it up for sure. If anyone has any questions feel free to ask. Sincerly, Ashur SweetSpots.mq4 Center of Gravity 1.mq4 ashurtemplatecenterofgravity.zip
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« แก้ไขครั้งสุดท้าย: มีนาคม 27, 2010, 01:28:31 PM โดย Icy »
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บันทึกการเข้า
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Icy
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« ตอบ #59 เมื่อ: มีนาคม 21, 2010, 11:51:42 PM » |
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How to trade with Kaufman3.mq4 indicator http://forex-indicators.net/mt4-indicators/kaufmanKaufman3 indicator adds an extra exponential moving average to the KAMA value. It may be interesting as a basis for a trend following indicator. Try on 1H or 4H charts, with various parameters. Parameters: periodAMA = 6; - length of time to compute signal-to-noise ratio nfast = 2; - EMA length with high signal to noise nslow = 60; - EMA length with lowest signal to noise G = 2.5; - nonlinear squashing Kaufman indicator uses 2 moving averages, which are a bit more descriptive than regular MAs. The basic application of the Kaufman indicator is to spot a short term trend and trade with it. When Kaufman indicator lines cross a trend changes. Once a price candle is trading clearly outside both Kaufman lines (below lines - for downtrend, above - for an uptrend), the sight is clear to take a trade. Another advantage of Kaufman moving averages is that they quickly react to pausing trends by immediately going flat (check the behaviour of the green line on the screen shot above). When Kaufman moving average goes flat, traders should be looking to take partial profits from their trades because a trend could end there, the remaining position should be kept open in case the trend continues and be closed with either the cross of Kaufman lines, or, better off, with the first candlestick trading inside the lines (remember the first rule about entries : "candle outside Kaufman lines").
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บันทึกการเข้า
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ข้อเขียนทั้งหมด เป็นเพียงมุมมองส่วนตัว เพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนความคิดเห็นเท่านั้น
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Gold Price today, Gold Trend Price Prediction, ราคาทองคํา, วิเคราะห์ทิศทางทองคํา
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Thanks: ฝากรูป dictionary
---------------------Charts courtesy of Moore Research Center, Inc. For more information on Moore Research products and services click here. --- http://www.mrci.com ----------
---------------------------------------------รูปกราฟแสดงราคาทองในอดีตปี 1974-1999 ของ Moore Research Center, Inc.
แสดงฤดูกาลที่ราคาทองขึ้นสูงสุดและตําสุด เอาแบบคร่าวๆ เส้นนําตาลหรือนําเงินก็ใกล้เคียงกัน เส้นนําตาลเฉลี่ย
15 ปี เส้นนําเงินเฉลี่ย 26 ปี ราคาตําสุดของเส้นนําตาล หรือเฉลี่ย 15 ปี ในเดือน ปลายเดือน เมษ และปลายเดือน สค
ต่อต้นเดือน กย[/color] สูงสุดในเดือน กพ กับ พย / ส่วนเฉลี่ย 26 ปี ราคาตําสุด ต้น กค กับ ปลาย สค และราคาสูงสุดในเดือน
กพ และ กลางเดือน ตค -----
แค่ดูคร่าวๆ เป็นแนวทาง อย่ายึดมั่นว่าจะต้องเป็นตามนี้
ข้างล่างเป็นกราฟราคานํามัน ตามฤดูกาล จาก Charts courtesy of Moore Research Center, Inc.
Thanks: ฝากรูป dictionary
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