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เริ่มแปลข้างล่างครับ FOREX-Dollar at 8-mth high after Fed hikes discount rateFri Feb 19, 2010 2:02am EST* Dollar index hits 8-mth high, euro drops to 9-mth low
* Dollar rises to 1-mth high vs yen above 92 yen
* Fed officials play down step, move seen as symbolic
* Market sees rise in fed funds rate as still far off
By Kaori Kaneko
TOKYO, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The dollar leapt and the euro hit a nine-month low on Friday after the Federal Reserve said it was raising the interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans, signalling it was starting to normalise monetary policy.
The timing took markets by surprise and despite assurances from Fed officials that the step was not a precursor to a rise in its main monetary policy tool, traders and analysts said the market was now adjusting its sights to that eventuality.
The move also warned investors that using the dollar to fund positions in riskier assets was set to become costlier, and highlighted the difference between fiscal worries weakening the euro and U.S. conditions which allowed the Fed to start removing a key emergency measure deployed at the start of the crisis.
Although the euro recovered from its nine-month low, traders said its breach of $1.35 opened the way to further falls.
"My feeling is that the dollar has crossed a line this morning and from here it will probably strengthen gradually," said Gareth Berry, a currency strategist at UBS in Singapore.
"This will force people to take note that the Fed does appear to be shuffling ever closer to that exit door."
The Fed said late on Thursday the discount rate would be increased to 0.75 from 0.50 percent, effective Friday, although it left the benchmark federal funds rate, its main policy tool, unchanged near zero. [ID:nSGE61I036]
The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, rose 1 percent in Asian trade to 81.20 after climbing to its highest level in eight months at 81.33 .DXY.
The euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.3464 EUR= after dropping as far as $1.3443 on trading platform EBS, its weakest since mid-May 2009.
Fed officials said market expectations of key rate hikes had gone too far, helping the euro stage a short rebound. But dealers said strong selling had emerged into the rally.
Against the yen, the dollar hit its highest in a month at 92.10 yen JPY=. It stopped short of piercing a 200-day moving average at 92.30 yen which has formed resistance in the past, and has a longer-term downtrend from June 2007 coming in just above 93.00 yen.
LOOKING FOR CLUES
While the timing surprised the market, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week the central bank could soon raise the discount rate. He had stressed, however, that the move would not be akin to tightening monetary policy.
"It will take more time before there is a hike in the fed funds rate as there need to be improvements in the U.S. economy, such as in the labour market," said Tomohiro Nishida, treasury department manager at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking.
Analysts said Bernanke would have an opportunity to explain further in congressional testimony next week. [FED/DIARY]
Nonetheless expectations had been raised and unless the Fed kept a pledge to keep rates low "for an extended period" in post- policy meeting statements ahead, the market would be wary that after this surprise it could be surprised again in the future.
Shorter-dated Treasury yields rose after the discount move, with the two-year yield topping 0.97 percent, its highest in a month.
"Gains in U.S. short-term interest rates after the rise in the discount rate make players want to buy the dollar, even though Fed officials say it is not the start of tightening," said a trader at a Japanese bank. [ID:nTKW006818]
"But if there are more comments by U.S. officials playing down the possibility of the Fed tightening, the dollar's upside could be weighed down," he said.
In a signal that the ground may be shifting for the dollar against the yen, the spread between three-month dollar USD3MFSR= and yen Libor JPY3MFSR= rates narrowed on Thursday to its tightest in six months.
